The Upside of the Downturn Part II: Smarter Startups

I’ve been reading about how Silicon Valley is adjusting to the downturn as it’s a popular topic in many blogs. Many prominent VCs have issued memos to the CEOs of their portfolio companies telling them to raise more money, control expenses and focus on profitability because things are going to be rough for the foreseeable future. This is all pretty good advice. Of course, the sinister, conspiracy theorists amongst those I’ve read feel this is an easy way to instill fear and get better valuations for VCs. I’m not so skeptical so as to believe this.
But the outcome from this recession/downturn from an entrepreneurship and innovation perspective is going to be positive in my view for 2 reasons:
Reason 1 - As I mentioned in my Part 1 post, there are going to be a lot of unemployed or disillusioned people who say “I’m going to invest in myself instead of getting a job or investing in the stock market”. These people will pursue new ideas, develop new technologies and will start new companies. Out of this might emerge a few great companies and many more which will employ people and inspire even more entrepreneurs.
Reason 2 - This shakeout is going to get rid of a lot of crap ideas and companies. There is no other way to say this. Many of the “me too” social networks or “iPhone/Facebook app” developers hoping to generate a userbase that they’d one day magically figure out how to ‘monetize’ may not make it. They won’t make it not because they don’t have a cool idea that is fun and even potentially useful, but because many of these businesses were “built to flip” as a friend of mine at a prominent Sand Hill Road VC once commented. And so they were never predicated on a real business model that could bring in more revenue than the dollars they spend. This is a risky proposition and unfortunately, and such businesses don’t allow you to make it up in volume.
And while some of these ideas were marginally useful or fun as I mentioned, I also don’t know if they were solving real problems, e.g., building stuff that people really needed or finding a better way to do something that enough people cared about.
So what we’ll see in my estimation is the bar will get raised and better ideas will emerge and a new crop of more well-conceived startups will come forward. With VC funding tightening up, entrepreneurs will need to do this. Things that solve really big problems and that are built with an eye towards becoming sustainable businesses which are lean, mean and profitable are what will come into vogue. A dollar and a dream may not be enough but a dollar, a dream and some serious discipline will be required.
In essence, for every Facebook, there will be many others that don’t have the backing to make it through the next several years. And honestly, even if they did, being the social network for ex-convicts was never going to be that big (sorry guys). I do think that many of these smart people who don’t make it out of this cycle will come back with better, tighter, more refined ideas the next time around, and this type of cycle is healthy. Of course, this all only holds until the next bubble.





